HP jumps into WebOS lifeboat from sinking Windows ship

All Hewlett-Packard PCs in 2012 will run WebOS, Bloomberg reports. If so, it means that HP has no confidence in Microsoft's Windows 8 strategy

HP's new CEO, Léo Apotheker has told his company that all Hewlett-Packard PCs will ship with WebOS in 2012 along with Windows (at least for a while), according to a Bloomberg Businessweek report. If so, it's a major slap in the face to Microsoft, serving as HP's public vote of no-confidence in Microsoft's plans to make Windows 8 mobile- and touch-friendly in 2012 and perhaps as the first step in filing for divorce from the Microsoft half of the Wintel duopoly.

A lack of confidence is eminently understandable. Microsoft has stumbled along for years in the mobile space, and it's been uneven in the desktop space.

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A decade ago, when the hot mobile platform was the Palm OS, Microsoft's Windows Mobile (then called Windows CE) was a credible competitor for that era of low expectations. When the iPhone debuted in 2007 and changed the game, Microsoft responded more than a year later with the anemic Windows Mobile 6.5, an operating system almost no one adopted. Then the great hope was Windows Phone 7, which shipped last fall missing basic features such as HTML5 support, copy and paste, and security. Its sales have been anemic as well. (Microsoft's later pairing up with the fast-falling Nokia only undermined the sense of desperation around Windows Phone 7.)

Then Microsoft said in January that the next version of Windows -- what everyone calls Windows 8 -- will run on the ARM chips commonly used in mobile devices, and it hinted at support for touch gestures and other mobile technologies so that the new version can be used in tablets. (Never mind that Microsoft claims Windows 7 works as a tablet OS. Have you seen one outside of a Microsoft demo? I thought not.)

The frustrations with Microsoft are at a boil
If HP believed that this time Microsoft will actually deliver on its promises, it wouldn't need WebOS PCs because Windows 8 would do what WebOS is supposed to do. I don't know anyone who actually believes Microsoft's promises any more -- it's cried "wolf" way too often. But HP's oh-so-public vote of no confidence is likely the act that will break the logjam and let those doubts and frustrations gain voice. Former Microsoft CTO Ray Ozzie fired the warning shot last fall in his famous post-PC memo; today, that worldview is fast becoming the conventional wisdom, and Microsoft is not among the wise.

In 2007, people quietly fretted about Windows Vista but were afraid to go public because buying Microsoft was the only choice. However, they voiced their anger massively and publicly once InfoWorld launched its Save XP campaign in early 2008. I believe we're set for a repeat, this time with HP's WebOS switchover being the straw that breaks the camel's back. I fully expect all the dark mutterings I've been hearing off the record about Microsoft's rudderless mobile efforts and lack of interest in a new version of Windows will go public. And I won't be surprised if those publicly voiced frustrations quickly expand to cover the many quiet complaints I've been hearing on the instability and difficult management of Exchange and related Windows Server products.

People are fed up, and they're starting to believe that something is about to change, or that they must create the change themselves. It's an eerie parallel to what's happening in North Africa and the Middle East today.

Of course, 2012 is a long time off in the tech industry's calendar. HP's executive suite has hardly been stable in recent years, so who knows if Apotheker -- who hasn't exactly been warmly received -- will be calling the shots then. Microsoft could lavish HP with money to change its mind, or find a way to penalize HP through unfavorable license terms or dropped marketing support.

More likely, WebOS may not deliver. It's not as if the first version under Palm got any traction, and HP's recent demo of WebOS 2.1 was very much a rehash of what Palm brayed about two years earlier. And then there's Apple, which will likely be well on its way to melding Macs and iPads as CEO Steve Jobs has all but announced.

Still, it's a smart move by HP. In fact, it's the only move if the company wants to thrive in the post-PC era. Think about it: As Microsoft sinks, only PC makers who have a strong alternative OS will survive. Apple is one of those companies, with the ever more popular Mac OS X and iOS. HP could be the other, with a WebOS that spans mobile and desktop devices. Where does that leave Dell, Acer, Lenovo, and the rest? Selling Android tablets or sinking along with Windows. For those technology-less PC makers, neither option is palatable, given Google's slow, awkward track record with Android and Chrome OS.

Even if HP's WebOS PC "lifeboat" plans come to naught, it doesn't matter. HP has broken the silence on Microsoft and indicated its lack of confidence where it matters: in its product strategy. Others will soon follow.